Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 78993.992161 83393.844805 87790.815898 92511.427818 97432.805300 102408.984938 107817.626107
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 71972.697656 78722.773933 85655.398046 93297.606452 101475.392774 109953.691342 119397.704312
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 66881.828083 75241.406287 84014.155153 93886.039130 104664.117754 116053.125204 128976.041694
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 62595.714814 72119.765627 82297.975213 93950.197233 106885.363412 120768.967520 136761.111388
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 59870.765992 70417.695112 81866.835008 95167.995737 110143.078890 126428.666537 145424.522063
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 56599.947073 67862.381285 80267.086312 94874.737261 111534.009238 129868.744573 151498.656878
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 54831.881024 66872.441393 80305.440967 96313.016366 114775.165551 135305.528563 159763.728821
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 52950.287398 65627.259718 79942.393134 97192.153852 117296.455664 139868.532465 167002.849005
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 50783.262457 63932.612882 78955.687860 97253.152123 118793.034829 143198.587706 172788.645624
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 48692.388989 62228.534703 77867.742361 97110.868306 119980.107635 146116.104432 178059.759931
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 47786.946854 61892.309758 78351.705541 98786.897452 123276.000108 151474.721430 186181.227960
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 46913.662299 61544.650104 78780.270487 100363.185323 126432.861398 156665.822080 194121.734005
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 45563.120691 60583.333064 78454.478900 101034.071701 128532.480127 160657.977304 200729.726741
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 43917.583799 59199.095559 77565.255716 100980.119849 129731.596722 163569.010169 206062.439633
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 42617.376910 58197.718450 77102.694440 101410.060464 131489.310733 167133.930820 212180.056197
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 41202.026899 56997.829776 76346.913425 101435.145642 132718.209787 170040.701099 217499.128570
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 40468.015243 56639.752537 76619.110726 102720.247156 135488.473696 174818.503091 225104.024789
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 39039.368779 55333.433397 75649.831598 102406.432350 136242.678745 177115.437584 229677.987684
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 38518.996459 55192.332146 76146.579192 103934.680208 139294.048236 182239.897745 237741.351595
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 37766.889932 54717.142491 76191.240146 104868.851559 141589.355196 186433.502095 244675.753840
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 36678.385815 53758.792964 75579.863312 104933.649101 142764.528861 189226.882331 249879.110572
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 35551.248647 52713.767879 74823.881431 104782.445108 143641.677935 191634.553159 254600.087840
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 35273.939864 52808.960319 75556.317907 106563.321290 146996.164330 197162.590096 263251.425077